Forecast of weather disasters in the Black Sea region

TitleForecast of weather disasters in the Black Sea region
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsIvanov, VA, Shokurov, MV, Dulov, VA, Chechina, EV
Abbreviated Key TitleDopov. Nac. akad. nauk Ukr.
Date Published2/2014

Means for the operational forecast of catastrophic weather events in the Black Sea region based on MM5 and WRF mesoscale atmospheric models and WAM wave model are presented. It is shown that the flooding in the Krasnodar Region, Russia, July 7, 2012 was predicted five days before the tragic events, and the catastrophic storm of November 11, 2007 off the coast of the Crimea was also predicted three days in advance. Quality of the regional forecast of MHI NASU and its advantages over the global forecast are discussed. The operational regional modeling of the atmosphere in MHI NASU could become an important element of a possible early warning system for weather disasters in the Azov-Black Sea region.

KeywordsBlack Sea region, weather disasters

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