Bioclimatic factors and the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: the place of Ukraine


  • S.V. Mezhzherin I.I. Schmalhuasen Institute of Zoology of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv
  • I.I. Kozynenko I.I. Schmalhuasen Institute of Zoology of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv
  • V.M. Tytar I.I. Schmalhuasen Institute of Zoology of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv



COVID-19, climate, ecological niche modeling, Europe, Ukraine


The dependence of the COVID-19 pandemic on 8 of the 35 analyzed bioclimatic factors has been proven in Europe. Their combination objectively determines the spatial basis of the pandemic. The optimal conditions for the development of the pandemic are determined by two key parameters: the minimum temperature of the coldest week of the year in the interval from 6 to 10 °C and a constant level of seasonal humidity. The most suitable for the development of the pandemic are the territories of the Western Europe (indicators of fitness from 60 to 80 %). Central and Northern Europe are characterized by an average level of suitability (50-60 %). The lowest level in the Eastern Europe is about 50 %. The territory of Ukraine belongs to the average suitable. Therefore, given the low, as for most European countries, population density, any excessive manifestations of the pandemic should be explained only by the low efficiency of medical and organizational measures nationwide.


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How to Cite

Mezhzherin С., Kozynenko І., & Tytar В. (2021). Bioclimatic factors and the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: the place of Ukraine. Reports of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, (4), 86–93.